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Will street drug prices go up because of Brexit?

  • Street drug prices likely to rise around 20-30% increase of no deal brexit
  • Prices could go up due to fall in the value of GBP.
  • If a deal is secured, drugs such as cocaine, heroin and MDMA will go down due to recovery of the pound
  • The value of the US dollar may go down as US economy is slowing, this may help the pound in the long run.

Theresa May is currently desperately seeking some form of legal amendment from the EU on the notorious Irish backstop agreement.  However, the EU have re-iterated that they won't amend the withdrawal agreement, so we seem to be playing a game of 'who blinks first'.

If nothing can be agreed that is acceptable to both the EU and UK Parliament then we do face the worse-case scenario of a 'no deal' and will need to handle the ramifications of that – However, what does this mean for international traders?

The good news is that we feel that international (non-EU) trade will be largely unaffected, which is where most of the drug supply is shipped in from (South America). Larger international ports tend to deal with little, if any ‘RORO (Roll On Roll Off) traffic so additional delays are not expected here, and airfreight similarly looks to continue running smoothly. One area that will see some significant changes in the event of a ‘no deal’ is that current FTA’s (Free Trade Agreements) between the EU and 3rd countries such as Canada, South Korea, South Africa and more recently, Japan, will become null and void for the UK. It is widely expected that these will be renegotiated on similar terms, but these are not often simple ‘cut and paste’ exercises and can take several years to finalise.

Will street drug prices go up because of Brexit?

In the short term, yes they will because the pound will drop in value, so prices may increase 20-30% also some cargo being shipped from northern EU ports maybe delayed but eventually prices should recover after 6 months to a year;

On to traffic moving between the UK and the EU and the media scare-mongering of potential car park situations on the M20 and M25 – Could this be a reality?

Although there may be some delays to drugs, at least in the initial stages, it is unlikely that these will be anyway near as bad as is being widely publicized. HMRC have been working behind the scenes to put plans in place to avoid port congestion that are very much focused on avoiding that scenario.    

If customers do trade between the UK and EU then there are some very significant changes coming their way in the event of a ‘no deal’:

For imports of EU goods, all goods will require an import customs declaration (a pre-lodged non-inventory linked declaration) prior to the ferry arriving in the UK. On arrival, the customs entry must be ‘arrived’ within 24 hours, at which point any Duty/VAT will need to be paid (more on that later). 

  • For exports, pre-lodged customs declarations will be required (as is currently the case for all third country exports) but these will be declared as ‘arrived’. If the declaration receives ‘permission to progress’ (P2P) then the vehicle can proceed to the port. If selected for examination, the goods will have to be presented to Customs.

In addition to the above, a safety and security declaration will need to be made for exports. The good news is that this normally is standard procedure as part of the export customs entry process.

Similarly, import and export declarations (and safety and security declarations for the latter) will need to be arranged by customers/suppliers in the mainland EU.

These plans have one aim, to avoid the need for trucks to have to stop and wait at RORO ports such as Dover.

More information here: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/hm-revenue-and-customs-simplifies-importing-from-the-eu-as-part-of-no-deal-preparation

Will Duty/VAT be payable on goods coming into the UK from the EU? Well, maybe and kind of.  Under a worst case scenario Duty would be introduced, probably at WTO rates, which actually mirror pretty much the current international rates. However, there are mechanisms in place that may mean any duty is waived – We will not have confirmation of this until nearer the time.  Another pending change is that import VAT will be postponed (For EU and International shipments). This means that if customers are VAT registered, they will no longer have to pay it up front and then claim it back.  

So, if our EU customers have not traded ‘Internationally before’ what do they need to do to prepare? There are two main things they can do right now:

  1. Apply for an EORI number. This will be required for you to trade with the EU (and Internationally). If they do not have an EORI, they will not be able to import or export products. The good news is that it’s free and only takes ten minutes to apply online. See here:   https://www.gov.uk/eori
  1. Find out what HMRC tariff codes apply to their products.  These are a ten digit numeric code that allow HMRC to identity your goods. See here

What could happen?

Absolutely anything right now from a ‘no-deal’, an extension of Article 50, calling the whole thing off (albeit very unlikely) or a re-negotiated withdrawal bill being agreed allowing a ‘Soft Brexit’. Although there is still no certainly whatsoever over what will happen with Brexit, we will continue to closely monitor the situation and will be sending out significant updates to customers as and when they happen. The first one is being worked on currently by our marketing team and will be sent out to all customers shortly.

In the meantime, please do use the information above to help assist any customers that may have questions. If they would like to contact me directly, please pass on my details. if you have any specific questions, you can ask below and I will do my best to answer them.

Theresa May is currently desperately seeking some form of legal amendment from the EU on the notorious Irish backstop agreement.  However, the EU have re-iterated that they won't amend the withdrawal agreement, so we seem to be playing a game of 'who blinks first'.

If nothing can be agreed that is acceptable to both the EU and UK Parliament then we do face the worse-case scenario of a 'no deal' and will need to handle the ramifications of that – However, what does this mean for international traders?

The good news is that we feel that international (non-EU) trade will be largely unaffected. Larger international ports tend to deal with little, if any ‘RORO (Roll On Roll Off) traffic so additional delays are not expected here, and airfreight similarly looks to continue running smoothly. One area that will see some significant changes in the event of a ‘no deal’ is that current FTA’s (Free Trade Agreements) between the EU and 3rd countries such as Canada, South Korea, South Africa and more recently, Japan, will become null and void for the UK. It is widely expected that these will be renegotiated on similar terms, but these are not often simple ‘cut and paste’ exercises and can take several years to finalise.

On to traffic moving between the UK and the EU and the media scare-mongering of potential car park situations on the M20 and M25 – Could this be a reality?

Although there may be some delays, at least in the initial stages, it is unlikely that these will be anyway near as bad as is being widely publicized. HMRC have been working behind the scenes to put plans in place that are very much focused on avoiding that scenario.    

If customers do trade between the UK and EU then there are some very significant changes coming their way in the event of a ‘no deal’:

  • For imports of EU goods, all goods will require an import customs declaration (a pre-lodged non-inventory linked declaration) prior to the ferry arriving in the UK. On arrival, the customs entry must be ‘arrived’ within 24 hours, at which point any Duty/VAT will need to be paid (more on that later). 
  • For exports, pre-lodged customs declarations will be required (as is currently the case for all third country exports) but these will be declared as ‘arrived’. If the declaration receives ‘permission to progress’ (P2P) then the vehicle can proceed to the port. If selected for examination, the goods will have to be presented to Customs.

In addition to the above, a safety and security declaration will need to be made for exports. The good news is that this normally is standard procedure as part of the export customs entry process.

Similarly, import and export declarations (and safety and security declarations for the latter) will need to be arranged by customers/suppliers in the mainland EU.

These plans have one aim, to avoid the need for trucks to have to stop and wait at RORO ports such as Dover.

More information here: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/hm-revenue-and-customs-simplifies-importing-from-the-eu-as-part-of-no-deal-preparation

Will Duty/VAT be payable on goods coming into the UK from the EU? Well, maybe and kind of.  Under a worst case scenario Duty would be introduced, probably at WTO rates, which actually mirror pretty much the current international rates. However, there are mechanisms in place that may mean any duty is waived – We will not have confirmation of this until nearer the time.  Another pending change is that import VAT will be postponed (For EU and International shipments). This means that if customers are VAT registered, they will no longer have to pay it up front and then claim it back.  

So, if our EU customers have not traded ‘Internationally before’ what do they need to do to prepare? There are two main things they can do right now:

  1. Apply for an EORI number. This will be required for you to trade with the EU (and Internationally). If they do not have an EORI, they will not be able to import or export products. The good news is that it’s free and only takes ten minutes to apply online. See here:   https://www.gov.uk/eori
  1. Find out what HMRC tariff codes apply to their products.  These are a ten digit numeric code that allow HMRC to identity your goods. See here:  


What could happen?

Absolutely anything right now from a ‘no-deal’, an extension of Article 50, calling the whole thing off (albeit very unlikely) or a re-negotiated withdrawal bill being agreed allowing a ‘Soft Brexit’. Although there is still no certainly whatsoever over what will happen with Brexit, we will continue to closely monitor the situation and will be sending out significant updates to customers as and when they happen. The first one is being worked on currently by our marketing team and will be sent out to all customers shortly. Click here to buy Drug Testing Kits

 

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